What's happening – In August 2025, a landslide in Alaska's Tracy Arm Fjord triggered the second-largest megatsunami ever recorded. Roughly 64 million cubic metres of rock, equivalent to 24 Great Pyramids, collapsed into the water. The fall generated a wave nearly 500 m tall, exceeding the height of the Eiffel Tower. The event, only just analysed and published in Science, was narrowly missed by tourist cruise ships due to its occurrence in the early hours. Scientists linked the collapse to glacier melt – retreating ice had been propping up the cliff face which then fell into the fjord. Researchers warn such events may now be ten times more frequent than decades ago, raising serious concerns about climate-driven hazards (BBC).

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Why does it matter? Half of global glacier mass is projected to be lost by the end of the century and as the Arctic and Antarctic continue to melt, cascading risks emerge. With the UK recording its hottest May day on record in 2026 and 2025 confirmed as the hottest year on record, it is clear the heating of our planet is accelerating. The Tracy Arm megatsunami is just one harrowing example of the trends we need to watch that will affect livelihoods, businesses, politics and more.

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Food and water scarcity – Retreating glaciers already threaten the food and water supplies of two billion people, with two-thirds of the world's irrigated agriculture exposed to shrinking glaciers and declining mountain snowfall. Over one billion people live in mountainous regions and up to half of those in developing countries face food insecurity. This number is set to worsen as farming depends on meltwater. Mountains provide 60% of the world's freshwater and as these sources diminish, more investment needs to go toward mitigation and technologies.

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Rising water-related violence – As resources grow scarcer, conflict follows. Water-related violence has almost doubled since 2022, with 419 incidents recorded in 2024, up from 235 in 2022 according to the Pacific Institute. Climate change is not the only driver, with corruption and infrastructure failure also contributing to the rising cases, with examples ranging from Israel's targeting of water systems in Gaza and Lebanon to India-Pakistan treaty disputes and protests on the US-Mexico border. The UN predicts global freshwater demand will exceed supply by 40% as of 2030, yet only a fifth of countries sharing transboundary basins have cross-border agreements in place.

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New Arctic frontier – As sea ice retreats, the Arctic Sea Route is opening shorter trade lanes between Europe and Asia. Last year China launched the "world's first China-Europe Arctic Express container route", slashing transit times from 40 days via the Suez canal to just 18. Although a revelation for trade, Arctic emissions are expected to surge and melting accelerate as black carbon from ship exhaust darkens ice, reducing the arctic’s albedo. Arctic black carbon emissions rose 85% between 2015 and 2019. Mining also darkens the surface of the Artic leading to increased melt.

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Toxic environments – The melting of glaciers also leads to mine-like pollution as newly thawed minerals react with oxygen in water causing acidification,creating toxic aquatic environments. This results in food insecurity and threatens cultures as aquatic environments degrade and highlights the need to invest in greener shipping fuels and technologies to increase reflectivity and reduce ice melting.

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Diseases re-emerging – While melting permafrost and glaciers are unveiling new frontiers for people to mine, inhabit and pass through, pathogens locked away for millennia are also emerging. In 2016, thawing reindeer carcasses in Siberia released anthrax, killing one boy and 2,500 reindeer. Diseases such as monkeypox and nipah virus have all been linked to increased encroachment on previously untouched areas, leading to unknown diseases passing to humans. Geneticist Jean-Michel Claverie warns pandemic preparedness focuses almost exclusively on southern regions, leaving a blind spot in the far north where shipping and tourism are bringing more people into contact with newly exposed microbes.

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Looking forward – The Tracy Arm megatsunami was a near miss in a remote fjord, but the trends – scarcer water, increased conflict, busier shipping lanes and re-emerging disease – are anything but remote. The Arctic is no longer a distant frontier, it is the system through which the rest of the world's climate, trade and health risks are increasingly being routed. Investment in technologies and mitigation strategies will be essential to mediating some of these risks.