Trend spotter – what’s going on with water scarcity?

February 4, 2026

Nicola Watts

The trend – Over the past few weeks we have spotted several important developments around the issue of water security. The most pertinent is a UN flagship report alerting us that world is facing an era of “global water bankruptcy”, marking a disturbing shift from a temporary crisis to irreversible hydrological damage. The analysis found that water systems supporting six billion people and half of global food production are now being pushed beyond the point of recovery. Lead author Kaveh Madani warns that unlike "stress" or "crisis" the distinction of bankruptcy implies our ecological savings accounts are exhausted. With surface waters shrinking and aquifers drained, the UN urges nations to acknowledge the threat and that treating it as a temporary problem will only deepen ecological destruction and threaten global food security.

What else is going on? Half of the world’s 100 largest cities are experiencing high water stress, with 38 facing extreme stress levels where demand is close to exceeding supply, according to mapping by Watershed Investigations and the Guardian. Cities including Beijing, Delhi, Los Angeles and Rio de Janeiro are among the worst affected. NASA satellite data shows 1.1 billion people live in metropolitan areas undergoing long-term drying, compared to 96 million in regions becoming wetter. Tehran, which has endured six years of drought, is dangerously close to “day zero” where water becomes inaccessible. The World Bank Group has also said that global freshwater is now being lost at a rate of 324 billion m3 annually, enough to supply 280 million people.

Rising violence – The Guardian also reported that water-related violence has nearly doubled since 2022, with 419 incidents recorded in 2024 compared to 235 two years earlier. US-based thinktank Pacific Institute cited climate change, infrastructure failures, corruption and geopolitical tensions as key drivers. Conflicts include Israel’s targeting of Gaza’s water systems, tensions over India-Pakistan water treaties and disputes along the US-Mexico border. The UN notes that global freshwater demand may exceed supply by 40% by 2030. Around 40% of the world’s population live in transboundary basins but only 20% of countries have cross-border sharing agreements, meaning that stronger, enforceable treaties are needed to prevent further conflict and protect water access.

Adaptation in action – A positive story came out of Jordan and Lebanon where a four-year regional project supporting water resilience has entered its final phase, having benefited 88,000 people through climate-informed planning and sustainable infrastructure. Financed by the Adaptation Fund, the initiative installed rainwater harvesting and greywater systems, trained communities in permaculture skills and promoted cooperation between the two countries. Officials at the final steering meeting in Beirut called for increased climate finance, as the Arab region receives just 0.6% of global climate funding. The project highlights how integrated water management can address climate change, displacement and water scarcity in one of the world’s most stressed regions.

Corporate response – The private sector is also starting to recognise water security as a core business imperative rather than a tick box exercise, as exemplified by Water.org’s launch of the Get Blue initiative at the World Economic Forum in Davos, partnering with Amazon, Gap, Starbucks and Ecolab to advance global access to safe water and sanitation through market-based solutions. The platform aims to embed water stewardship into corporate strategies and generate sustained consumer-driven funding. Starbucks has pledged $50m through WaterEquity, while all founding partners have identified water as a sustainability priority.

A final thought – The UN diagnosis of bankruptcy is a call to end the denial. Whether through hyper-local adaptation in the Jordan Valley or corporate supply-chain overhauls in the West, the world must now manage its water not as an infinite income but as a finite trust fund that must be protected at all costs.

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