‍What’s happening? Brazil lost around 737,000 ha of forest linked to coffee cultivation between 2002 and 2023, according to Coffee Watch. About 313,000 ha were cleared directly for planting coffee, with the remainder resulting from forest degradation on coffee farms. The report warns that continued deforestation is undermining rainfall and soil moisture critical for Brazil’s coffee industry, the world’s largest producer and exporter. In the south-eastern state of Minas Gerais, eight of the past 10 years recorded rainfall deficits and NASA data shows soil moisture down 25% in key growing areas. Farmers are increasingly resorting to costly irrigation. Coffee Watch urges adoption of sustainable agroforestry practices, currently used on less than 1% of farms, to protect future yields. (Reuters)

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Why does it matter? Coffee powers households and economies. It is the most traded commodity after oil with more than two billion cups poured each day and production expanding roughly 60% since 1994. A 12 oz black coffee averages 0.258 kg CO2e, raising up to 0.844 kg CO2e when milk is added, however, most of coffee’s climate footprint is created before the coffee reaches the cup. CDP estimated 75%-91% of coffee lifecycle emissions arise in cultivation and processing. What is unfolding in Brazil illustrates this fact.

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Coffee’s environmental impact – Coffee processing contributes to deforestation both actively and passively. Deforestation to grow coffee actively disrupts the process of transpiration, where trees release moisture from the soil through their leaves into the atmosphere which cools the surrounding forest. With less water in the atmosphere due to deforestation, areas are experiencing less rain and declining soil moisture, making regional environments more arid and prone to drought. This hydrological slowdown is visible in Minas Gerais where Osmar Junior explained his yield had gone from 2,000 bags a years to only 700 bags between 2020 and 2024. This in turn affects the price of the coffee for consumers, as demand outweighs supply, with the cost of coffee per pound weight reaching a record high in February 2025 at $4.40, leading companies such as Starbucks to raise their prices for customers.

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The way coffee is processed can also contribute indirectly to deforestation. For example, wastewater from wet milling is high in organic matter which can release methane if left untreated, contributing to a warming atmosphere, while chemicals in fertilisers and pesticides can lead to soil and water pollution damaging the environment. Mono crops of coffee also drive loss of biodiversity, reducing the resilience of the environment and nutrients available in the soil. As climates change, coffee production is moving to new areas with higher elevations to counteract the temperature change, adding new pressures onto the forest. Changes in weather and location also impact the taste of the coffee, which like wine, varies with temperature and soil quality.

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A global problem – This is not just Brazil’s problem. Countries such as Honduras and India have also experienced significant coffee-linked forest loss in recent years, underscoring that the challenge spans continents. As consumers, we also encounter these environmental shifts through price changes which are only increasing. However, boycotting is not the answer as an estimated 125 million people depend on coffee for their livelihoods. The goal is to change how coffee is produced, not to stop drinking it. We can combat coffee decline at the source with agroforestry.

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A forest with coffee – Agroforestry can be understood as growing coffee beneath or alongside trees native to the forest. Done well, it moderates heat, buffers rainfall extremes, rebuilds soils, supports pollinators and birds that naturally control pests, and stores carbon for longer. There are already examples of agroforestry in practice. In Central America, farmers use a blend of traditional land stewardship with modern plant science, with a focus on a “forest that grows coffee” rather than coffee plantations in place of forest. Smarter processes such as precision fertiliser use and wastewater treatment at wet mills can also shrink on-farm emissions.

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Tracing accountability – At the other end of the chain, roasters and cafés can cut energy footprints through renewables and better packaging and waste systems. Transparency is part of the solution too. Digital traceability is moving from niche to norm – for example, roaster Malongo now uses QR codes to show supplier villages, logistics milestones and roast dates, building accountability across the chain.

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Protecting coffee’s future – The world wants coffee. To keep enjoying it and to protect the communities who grow it, production must shift toward prioritising methods that preserve the forest, or accept a future of scarcer, costlier, and blander coffee.