What’s happening? The UN has projected a 10% reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to 1990 levels, marking the first anticipated decline under its forecasts. However, this figure falls far short of the 60% cut scientists say is essential to limit global warming to 1.5C. Based on 64 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) representing one-third of global emissions, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) synthesis report reveals that current pledges could cut emissions by 17% from 2019 levels. Although most NDCs now address all economic sectors and include adaptation and finance, only limited progress has been made toward avoiding catastrophic climate outcomes. (Bloomberg)

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Why does this matter? Global warming is already wreaking havoc across the globe. In late October, Hurricane Melissa, ranked as the second most powerful storm ever recorded in the Atlantic, swept through the Caribbean devastating Jamaica before smashing into Haiti, Cuba, the Bahamas and Bermuda. The hurricane rapidly gathered speed with winds reaching 180 mph as it travelled over unusually warm ocean waters, which were 1.2C to 1.4C above average. According to Climate Central, these higher temperatures were made between 500x and 900x more likely due to human-caused climate change.

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Flood, fire and drought – Climate change is also driving up flood risks. For example, a recent Guardian investigation discovered that millions more properties across Great Britain will become susceptible to flooding, with some towns potentially being abandoned as homes and businesses become unable to obtain insurance. Meanwhile, droughts are becoming longer and more severe, impacting food production and water security, while expanding the probability of wildfires. Even where rainfall has not changed, droughts can still be exacerbated via atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) – a process that absorbs moisture from plants, soil and rivers more quickly than it can be replenished and is increasing as the world gets hotter.

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Rising mortality – The health impact is critical and must not be ignored, with a recent Lancet report warning that extreme heat is now causing almost 550,000 deaths annually worldwide – around one every minute. The analysis also revealed that most recent heatwave days would not have occurred without climate change. Heat-related productivity losses reached $1tn in 2024, representing almost 1% of global GDP. The research, conducted by 128 scientists across 71 institutions, warns that parts of the world may soon face “physiological tipping points” where human survival becomes impossible.

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Inevitable overshoot – COP30 is on the horizon, set to take place in Belem, Brazil from 10-21 November. Ahead of the meeting, UN Secretary General António Guterres has warned the world will unavoidably overshoot the 1.5C global warming target, with “devastating consequences” including potential tipping points in the Amazon and polar regions. He stressed that continued oil, gas and coal  use is central to the crisis and called for an immediate, dramatic reduction in emissions to keep the overshoot “as short as possible”. Guterres also pointed out that the transition to renewables will “inevitably accelerate”, bringing the fossil fuel era closer to its end.

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Alternative viewpoint – Bill Gates, the billionaire investor and philanthropist, has taken another angle, arguing that global warming, while serious, is “not civilisation-ending” and that reducing vulnerability, especially in developing nations, offers more equitable outcomes. He said leaders should focus less on temperature reductions and more on strengthening resilience through investments in health care, energy access and agriculture. Gates added that direct deaths from natural disasters have fallen 90% over the past century due to improved infrastructure and warning systems. Moreover, he suggested greater scrutiny of climate aid spending, using data to “maximise impact”, while also calling for greater investment in high-impact clean tech to bring down costs at a faster pace.

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Bottom line – It is clear that emissions are not falling fast enough, but the goal of limiting warming to 1.5C must remain, while also improving access to vital services and bolstering water, food and energy security should the anticipated overshoot arrive.