What's happening? The COP30 climate summit in Brazil overran, with ongoing clashes between nations over fossil fuel reductions, deforestation and climate finance. Draft texts, delayed by a fire at the venue, failed to include a roadmap for transitioning from fossil fuels, a key issue raised by over 80 countries. There were also disagreements on strengthening Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and halting deforestation. Despite these challenges, more than $6bn in forest finance commitments were secured. A key focus remains on increasing climate adaptation finance. (edie)

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Why does it matter? 83 countries from Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Pacific joined with EU member states and the UK to make a plea for countries to transition away from fossil fuels through a fossil fuel roadmap. The roadmap was first propositioned in 2023 at COP28, however the UK climate envoy, Rachel Kyte, explained they “have not been able to find ways to implement it”. Jasper Inventor, deputy programme director at Greenpeace International, highlighted the representation from both Global South and Global North countries demonstrating the backing of the roadmap across continents. As of now, it is only a voluntary plan, not included in the official COP30 text.

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Petrostates dominate talks – Among those against the inclusion of measurable actions through a fossil fuel roadmap in formal text were petrostates such as Saudi Arabia and Russia. More than 1,600 fossil fuel lobbyists attended COP30 outnumbering every country's delegation apart from Brazil, according to an analysis by Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO), representing a 12% proportional rise compared to COP29 in Azerbaijan. This was not helped due to multiple barriers to access to COP30 in Brazil, most notably hotel prices. Small island states were forced to reduce the size of their delegations to afford to go to Brazil and European countries Latvia and Lithuania requested to join virtually due to the incurred costs. This demonstrates how money still influences presence at the COP.

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Island States demand action – The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), comprising 39 island nations, backed the fossil fuel roadmap. When decisions were slow, Ralph Regenvanu, the minister for climate change for the Pacific island of Vanuatu, told the Guardian “It’s not strong enough, it needs to be more action-oriented, it needs measurable targets, there need to be elements showing what this roadmap is going to look like”. The Marshall Islands envoy mirrored this sentiment stating “As a nation that is just two metres above sea level we know that climate action cannot wait. This roadmap is inevitable, it’s happening”. They emphasised the impacts of climate change small island states are presently experiencing, made stark by the start of the evacuation of Tuvalu’s population on the first “climate visas”.

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Levels of ambition – Despite the pleas, no roadmap was adopted into the formal text of the UN. This brings into question what voices are being truly heard. For example, We Mean Business Coalition CEO Maria Mendiluce stated “this COP risks sending the signal that the least ambitious voices set the ceiling for global climate action.” Brazil chose Belem to host the talks due to its proximity to the edge of the Amazon rainforest. However, overshadowing the talks was news that Brazil has just granted state owned oil company Petrobras permission to drill for oil near the mouth of the Amazon River.

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A conflicting message – Brazilian leadership justifies the drilling as they argue that profits from the oil would help fund Brazil’s climate transition. The area is home to several Indigenous communities and is a biodiversity hotspot, with a reef only discovered in 2016. If an oil spill occurred from the drilling an estimated 30% of the coral reef would be affected. The impact of an oil spill was felt by Brazil in 2019, causing fish sales to decrease by 80%-90% for fear of crude oil contamination, damaging the economy and livelihoods.

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Looking forward – For the COP dubbed the "implementation COP", a lot was left lacking, with the key subjects of fossil fuel decarbonisation at the front of delegates minds left outside of official text to be developed later. Some, such as Kyte, said that a “process outside of the negotiated outcomes” could “speed up delivery”. Even so, the lack of agreement for inclusion demonstrates just how divided the world is on the urgency of climate change and the necessary sacrifices that need to be made, as well as the possibilities created in a greener and cleaner future. Further talks on the transition away from fossil fuels will begin in April 2026 at a conference in Santa Marta hosted by Columbia and the Netherlands.